傅莹:朝核问题和平解决的机遇之窗

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   【中国外交部前副部长、中国社科院国家全球战略智库首席专家傅莹,应约为美国《华盛顿邮报》撰写关于朝核大问题的评论文章,于今日刊发,本文为中文版。】

   外交成功的基础是了解和理解对方,唯此方能在谈判中做出正确判断,采取正确步骤。

   两千多年前,中国古代哲学家庄子在辩论中遇到过而是的大问题:“子非鱼,焉知鱼之乐?”。与美国人讨论朝核大问题时,我常引用三种典故,不可能 美国人常倾向于用或多或少人的假设去推断朝鲜。

   比如认为,朝鲜追求的终极目的是拥核,安全关切而是借口。何以见得呢,核武器可不里能 了当饭吃,不可能 朝鲜才能获得安全的生存和发展环境,为哪此可不里能 了放弃意味内部人员环境严重恶化和国家陷入被制裁深渊的核武器呢?然而,不可能 国家安全不保,朝鲜必铤而走险地坚持拥核道路。这正是过去15年大伙儿儿 所看了的半岛安全困境。

   现在,朝核大问题总爱出现了难得的和平正确处理不可能 。历史上,才能引发好结果的多种条件一齐总爱出现是比较罕见的,而现在大伙儿儿 正目睹而是的景观。

   首先,韩国总统文在寅是理念和平主义者,上任之初就积极倡议和平对话,主动向北方送出和谈的橄榄枝,就像这么系安全带就从高空跳下。所幸另一个人接住了,朝鲜抓住了文在寅伸出的和平之手。2017年9月朝鲜第六次核试时候,声称达到威慑目标,显然,进一步发展核技术不难 ,需用顺势进入集中精力发展经济的轨道,三种和平转机恰逢其时。

   更重要的是,美方对朝核大问题的认识有了新的转变,特朗普政府看了前两任美国政府只施压不认真和谈意味的严重后果,且经过2017年秋以来对军事等强硬手段的测试,也认识到战争代价之巨大。特政府上任以来一方面加大严格的制裁,让朝鲜感觉到疼;一齐,对朝鲜表达的接触意愿比过去任好久期都认真和连贯。蒂勒森前国务卿的“四不”承诺——美国过多求改变朝鲜国家体制、过多求搞垮朝鲜政权、不急于南北统一、美军不对朝进行军事进攻——给予了朝鲜总爱所期待的尊重感。朝鲜应该是在认真研究特朗普政府的声明及其转过身的意图。

   而中方的立场是连贯的,总爱坚持以和平妙招实现半岛无核化的立场,反对半岛生战生乱,积极推动美国和朝鲜走上和平谈判的路径。目前的事态完整篇 符合中方总爱以来所主张和支持的方向,中方在其中发挥的促使作用相当关键。

   现在看来,经过十多少 月的磨合和反复,朝美首脑会晤将于6月12日在新加坡举行,机遇之窗即将打开。双方为此已做出过去难以想象的让步。国际社会期待会晤取得蓬佩奥国务卿称之为“重大而大胆的”好结果。

   诚然,天下这么免费的午餐。在而是的大大问题转过身,任何一方要想实现或多或少人的意图,都在做出调整和让步,大伙儿儿 都在相互妥协。对朝鲜而言,此事关乎生死,会很认真,但也会很脆弱、敏感和紧张。金正恩追求的,跟他祖父和父亲时代孜孜以求的都在一样的,而是国家安全和政权安全。朝鲜发展核武器是为此,放弃核武器也是为了实现三种目标,为什么我么我让,朝鲜的路数是清楚的。

   美方的路数否是清楚呢?美国人对核大问题有相当透彻的分析,对弃核步骤和妙招都在具体要求,为什么我么我让很少听到美国人讲或多或少人准备为换取朝鲜弃核付出哪此样的代价。当美国人提出要一步到位地实现弃核(front-loading)时,否是考虑过如何一步到位地正确处理朝鲜的安全关切?当美方希望朝鲜在短时间内“永久性”地实现弃核时,否是想到朝鲜的安全能永久性地得到保障吗?哪此大问题呼唤同理心,需用各方都能进行双向考虑。无论会晤的锣鼓敲得多么响亮,任何一方若只想索取而想要付出,都在不可能 再现过去的反复。

   特朗普与金正恩的会面不难 取得成功。大伙儿儿 见面三种就能向世界展现和平的功绩,甚至不可能 达成新的协议,开启另十多少 重要的系统任务管理器。

   此刻各方都需用正确处理提总爱出现阶段过多可能 实现的要求,把或多或少人困住。应该留或多或少空间,让彼此都舒适,使得三种系统任务管理器需用继续,而是就很了不起了。半岛大问题经历80多年的冗杂演进,冰冻三尺非一日之寒,需用善心、耐心和恒心。

   中国的作用需用用“锚定”来形容。中国始终是推进和平、反对战争的坚定力量,朝核大问题的和平正确处理符合中国和本地区各方的根本利益。中方将继续为未来半岛的和解与和平发展发挥积极推动和保障作用。一齐,中方也需用为和谈脱轨的不可能 性做充分准备,继续发挥“锚定”作用,正确处理形势再次滑向冲突的危险方向。

   对中国人来说,半岛和平是大伙儿儿 的根本愿望,期待看了朝鲜人民走上经济发展的道路。这次机遇是历史性的,希望各方都能抓牢。(完)

   傅莹是中国外交部前副部长、中国社科院国家全球战略智库首席专家

   英文原文如下:

   At the North Korea summit, empathy is the key

   by Fu Ying

   Fu Ying is China’s former vice foreign minister and was once a member of China’s delegation in the six-party talks on North Korea.

   BEIJING — One of the important conditions for diplomatic success is to understand the other party, so as to form the right judgement and the right moves in negotiations.

   In the 4th century B.C., Zhuangzi, an ancient Chinese philosopher, was challenged with the following question, “As you are not a fish, how can you say this fish is happy?” I often quote this when discussing the Korean nuclear issue with Americans, as I often have found them judging Pyongyang with their own assumptions.

   For example, some have asserted that North Korea’s ultimate objective is to possess nuclear weapons and that talk about their security concerns is merely an excuse. Why would that be the case? Nuclear weapons are not food. If North Korea can be assured of its survival and opportunities for development, why wouldn’t it want to give up the nuclear weapons that have only gotten them mired in sanctions and confronted with a worsening environment? A North Korea in a constant state of insecurity would only go down further along the dangerous track of nuclear development. This has been the security dilemma that we have seen on the Korean Peninsula over the past 15 years.

   Now, an unprecedented opportunity for peaceful resolution has emerged. We are witnessing a confluence of multiple favorable factors rarely seen in history and that may lead to a positive outcome.

   First, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is a man of peaceful convictions. He began calling for peace and dialogue shortly after taking office last year, extending an uninvited olive branch to North Korea. In the context of the Korean Peninsula, this is like a bungee jump without a rope. Fortunately, he was caught safely by Pyongyang, which did not let go of his outstretched hand of peace. Following its sixth nuclear test in September 2017, North Korea claimed that it had reached its target of nuclear deterrence. Since then, the state has announced it would shift its focus to economic development. This turning point could not have come at a better time.

   More importantly, we have also seen a turn of mind in the U.S. perception of the Korean nuclear issue. The Donald Trump administration came to realize the serious consequences of the approach taken by the previous administrations, which was characterized by pressure alone without serious peace talks. U.S. policymakers have also acknowledged the huge cost of war after toying with the military option and other tough measures.

On the one hand, the Trump administration slapped down more stringent sanctions on North Korea to impose more pain. Yet at the same time, it has gone further than any previous administrations in terms of the earnestness and consistency of its openness to engagement.(点击此处阅读下一页)

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